WP 4 : Risk analysis and decision support tools

Monday 2 December 2013

In this Work Package, FORRSIK partners aim at developing risk analysis and decision support tools for foresters, through the development of analytical methods, models simulating risks and mapping different forest risks.

Action 4.1 : Risk analysis

Objectives :

To test and elaborate methods to analyse the risks that the project areas are facing

Map of studied areas infested by Gonipterus platensis in Portugal (source ISA)

Implementation :

Risk estimation

  • Related to soils (erosion, loss of fertility, ecotoxicity)
  • Storms
  • Forest fires
  • Biotic (ex: expansion of the Armillaria on Maritime Pine, of Fomes on Douglas)


  • The risk of Gonipterus platensis on Eucalyptus
  • Of storms in Aquitaine and Basque country

Using satellite imagery to analyse forest dieback

Action 4.2 : Modeling tools

Objectives :

Establish risk models (propagation, damage) of hazards affecting the project areas


  • Creating models of multifunctional management for Pinus pinaster and Pinus radiatia including management of fire risks
Pine Processionary moth nests (source INRA Bordeaux)

-* Modeling at regional scale the health risk caused by the pine processionary moth

  • Modeling at stand level the health risk caused by Fomes
  • Creation of a probability model of wind resistance based on the silvicuture

Action 4.3 : Decision support tools

Objectives :

Using expert systems to compare various silvicultural options, all risks included (for all areas)


  • Setting up of expert groups in each region
    Forest fire (Source CRPF Aquitaine)
  • Definition of standard stands to be used for expertise support
  • Identification of typical management options for selected forests
    Damage caused by the Klaus storm in the Landes area (Source CRPF Aquitaine)

    -* Each expert classifies these management options in view of the potential risk mitigation

  • Consideration of the perception of risks by forest owners